A Population-Based Framework for Creating Additional Provinces in Pakistan

A Constitutional Proposal for Balanced Representation, Resource Justice and Stronger Federal Cooperation

Pakistan’s debate over additional provinces should not be reduced to a contest between political parties or regions. It is fundamentally a question of how political representation, administration, resources and development can be distributed more fairly across the federation.

One possible approach is to establish a population benchmark of approximately 20 million people for a province, while also considering geography, administrative viability, economic sustainability, historical identity and democratic consent.

This would be a policy framework, not an automatic formula for dividing provinces.

1. A Population Benchmark, Not a Rigid Rule

Approximately 20 million people could serve as a reasonable benchmark for considering whether a province has become too large to be governed efficiently.

For example, a province of around 60 million people could potentially be considered for three administrative provinces, subject to detailed studies and constitutional procedures.

However, population alone should never determine boundaries. Any proposal should also examine:

• geographical continuity;
• administrative accessibility;
• economic viability;
• existing districts and divisions;
• infrastructure;
• natural resources and water systems;
• security and governance requirements;
• protection of minorities;
• development needs; and
• public consent.

The objective should be population-balanced federalism, not political fragmentation.

2. Why Consider Population Balance?

Pakistan’s National Assembly primarily reflects population, while the Senate provides equal provincial representation.

Large differences in provincial population can therefore produce significant differences in representation in the National Assembly. This is consistent with population-based democracy, but it can also create a perception that political influence is permanently concentrated in one region.

Creating provinces with more comparable populations could distribute administrative and political responsibility more broadly without taking away citizens’ right to representation according to population.

The objective should not be to weaken any province. It should be to create a more balanced federation.

3. One Principle for Every Province

This proposal should apply equally to Punjab, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.

It should not be designed against any province, ethnic group or political party.

The principle should be:

Same population benchmark, same constitutional procedure, same democratic test and equal rights for all.

New provinces should never be created simply to strengthen or weaken a particular political group.

4. Democratic and Constitutional Consent

The creation of a province permanently changes the constitutional structure of Pakistan. Therefore, it should follow the constitutional amendment process and all legally required approvals.

A transparent process should include:

• reliable population and administrative data;
• an independent boundary and viability assessment;
• parliamentary consideration;
• required provincial approval;
• public consultation;
• democratic consent through constitutionally valid mechanisms; and
• transparent division of assets, liabilities, institutions and employees.

The legitimacy of a new province should come from the Constitution and the people—not from temporary political influence.

5. Smaller Provinces Must Mean Better Governance

Creating additional provinces should not simply mean creating additional capitals and bureaucracies.

The reform should also strengthen local government and bring decision-making closer to citizens.

A more effective structure could be:

Federation → Province → District → Local Government

District and local governments should have meaningful authority over appropriate areas such as municipal services, local development, roads, water supply, education and public health.

6. Resource Justice Must Accompany Provincial Reform

New provinces alone cannot resolve Pakistan’s federal challenges.

A stronger federal framework should address water, hydropower, natural gas, petroleum, minerals, forests and other resources through transparent constitutional and legal mechanisms.

The basic principle should be:

National resources should benefit the whole federation, while regions and communities carrying significant economic, environmental or social burdens should receive a fair and transparent share of the benefits.

This is particularly important for dams, reservoirs, hydropower projects and mineral extraction.

7. Host Communities Should Become Stakeholders

Major national projects can permanently affect local land, livelihoods, infrastructure and communities.

A national policy could therefore consider Host Community Development Funds for major projects, supporting areas such as:

• education;
• healthcare;
• drinking water;
• roads;
• technical training;
• local employment;
• environmental restoration; and
• livelihood development.

Such mechanisms could help turn affected communities into long-term partners in national development.

8. Water Requires Special Treatment

Water is different from minerals or petroleum because rivers cross provincial boundaries.

Pakistan therefore needs reliable measurement, transparent reservoir information, agreed allocation mechanisms, shortage-sharing arrangements and effective dispute resolution.

The 1991 Water Accord can remain an important foundation, while its implementation and technical mechanisms can be reviewed through the appropriate constitutional and inter-provincial institutions.

Neither upstream location nor downstream dependence should become a basis for permanent political confrontation.

The objective should be fair allocation, responsible use, environmental protection and equitable sharing of benefits and burdens.

9. Strengthen the Council of Common Interests and NFC

The Council of Common Interests should remain a central forum for resolving federal-provincial disputes.

Its technical capacity, data verification, monitoring and timely decision-making could be strengthened.

Similarly, future fiscal arrangements could consider more than population alone, including:

• poverty and development needs;
• revenue capacity;
• geographical challenges;
• cost of service delivery;
• infrastructure gaps;
• resource contribution; and
• environmental or host-community burdens.

Any such changes should be developed through constitutional and inter-provincial consultation.

10. Merit and Fair National Representation

Federal institutions should serve the entire federation.

Greater participation from all provinces in national institutions can strengthen public confidence, provided that merit, competence and constitutional requirements remain protected.

The principle should be:

Merit with fair national opportunity—not regional exclusion.

This approach avoids both provincial discrimination and politically imposed quotas that could undermine institutional competence.

11. Inter-Provincial Commerce Must Be Protected

Resource and political disagreements should not become a reason to restrict ordinary citizens or lawful trade between provinces.

Food, agricultural products, electricity, gas, minerals and other lawful goods should move according to constitutional and legal rules.

Federal-provincial disputes should be resolved through institutions such as the Council of Common Interests, courts and relevant regulatory bodies—not through retaliatory economic measures.

12. Security and Constitutional Rights Must Remain Separate

Security challenges should be addressed against individuals or organizations responsible for unlawful activity.

They should not become a basis for collective blame against an entire province or its population.

Similarly, legitimate constitutional rights should remain protected while security institutions perform their lawful responsibilities.

This distinction is essential for maintaining national unity and public confidence.

13. The Principle of Equal Federal Citizenship

The ultimate purpose of restructuring should not be to make one province weaker and another stronger.

It should be to establish a federation where:

• every citizen has an equal constitutional status;
• every province has constitutional dignity;
• every region has a fair opportunity for development;
• resource-producing and resource-host communities receive appropriate benefits;
• population-based representation remains protected; and
• provinces participate meaningfully in federal decision-making.

Conclusion: A Balanced Federation, Not Political Fragmentation

Pakistan does not necessarily need additional provinces simply for the sake of increasing their number.

It needs a more effective distribution of political representation, administrative responsibility, development opportunities and resource benefits.

A population benchmark of approximately 20 million people could provide an objective starting point for discussing future provincial restructuring. However, it should remain a benchmark—not an automatic formula.

Geography, economic viability, administrative capacity, historical considerations, constitutional requirements and public consent must also be considered.

The ultimate objective should be:

Equal Citizenship.
Equal Constitutional Dignity.
Fair Representation.
Fair Resource Benefits.
Democratic Consent.

A successful reform would not divide Pakistan against itself. It would bring government closer to citizens, strengthen cooperation among provinces and create greater confidence that every region has a meaningful place in the federation.

The real question is therefore not:

“Which province will become weaker?”

It is:

“How can every Pakistani citizen and every region become stronger within one united federation?”

Author’s Disclaimer

This article represents my personal analysis and policy perspective as a citizen and social activist. The proposed population benchmark and institutional reforms are suggestions for public and constitutional debate, not existing law or government policy. The article is not intended to target, defame or promote hostility toward any province, community, institution or political party. Constitutional and factual matters should be independently verified from authoritative sources. The purpose of this article is to encourage peaceful, informed and constructive discussion about Pakistan’s federal future.

— Muhammad Israr